Welsh Week: a little less conversation please…

Croeso i wythnos Gymraeg blog HEPI. Ym mhob blog yr wythnos yma, byddwn yn ffocysu ar addysg uwch yng Nghymru, a thrafod gobeithion a gofidion unigolion allweddol ynglŷn ag etholiadau’r Senedd ym mis Mai 2026.

Welcome to the Welsh Week of HEPI’s blog. In each of this week’s blogs, we will be focusing on higher education in Wales, and discussing the hopes and fears of key individuals to do with Senedd elections in May 2026.

This first blog in HEPI’s Welsh Week was kindly authored by Dewi Knight, Director PolicyWISE (The Open University).

Wales is the land of famous poets and singers, according to the second line of our national anthem at least. During this self-governing quarter of a century, it’s become as famous for its commissions, consultations and committees. If you’re supposed to campaign in poetry and govern in prose, then successive Welsh Governments have certainly made an art of prosaic administration.

As a former government specialist adviser for education, I’m as guilty as anyone for bowing to this conservative lawyerly approach to policy development. But we also delivered big picture reforms – including grants for all modes and type of students and challenging the sector on civic mission.

A changing of the guard

As we head to an inevitable changing of the guard at May’s Senedd election, we need to shake off this Welsh malaise of reviews and reference groups. It’s time to move, and move quickly, towards big decisions, a long-term vision and accept that it might get a little uncomfortable.

The new government – possibly the first to be led by Plaid Cymru – will inherit the results of (you guessed it) a consultation on ‘The future of tertiary education in Wales: five challenges and calls.’  It’s a strong paper, which makes a good fist of setting out the problems and challenges. These include demographic change, competition, finances and economic contribution.

So, what does the next government and Medr need to do?

Think differentiation, and fund it accordingly

Let’s start with Medr (the National Commission for Tertiary Education and Research). As the steward of Wales’s tertiary education system, its strategic plan ‘encourages’ providers to focus on ‘their strengths’. Good news. But frankly, it’s not enough to just say these things or offer encouragement.

A system change is needed, and it needs to be backed up by financial decisions. Funding must reflect – and drive – the specific strengths and missions of different institutions, ensuring each plays a different, but equal and complementary role in achieving national (and regional) goals.

We can’t escape the reality of the UK-wide student market, research decisions and immigration policy, where choices are made in the English interest. So Medr, the new government, and all those who care, must be bold in shaping those things it can control to secure a more coherent, high-quality, and sustainable system.

We must take strategic decisions based on how all our institutions – and the national system overall – is performing on indicators such as widening participation, graduate progression/outcomes, research income and impact, attractiveness, and civic/economic anchor status.

Adopting such an approach might reveal some surprises and challenge some shibboleths. But future funding (and accountability) must then support the different but complementary strengths of colleges and universities. 

This will probably mean that we pick one institutional ‘winner’ as Wales’s contender to be at the top end of the international rankings – supporting (and challenging) it to lead the way for the sector. This isn’t simply a matter of research funding (and expectations), but supporting one ‘international’ institution to play a flagship role aligned to national and global priorities.

It also means we recognise civic and regional contributions in a dedicated way and drive greater further and higher education collaboration, and with local employers, for those types of institutions.

Should we further concentrate research support and post-graduate provision to fewer institutions? Very probably.

And whilst I’d want to see all institutions delivering lifelong learning and part-time adult higher education – the reality is that the experts at The Open University in Wales should continue to be the de-facto national provider, and work with others to reach all communities, particularly further education colleges

The longer Medr takes before making this kind of leap, the harder it will get. If we don’t change funding systems, then behaviours and incentives won’t change. A new government needs to give a firm steer.

Student finance – advice for Plaid Cymru

On student finance, it seems inevitable that a Plaid government will want to slay a couple of its favourite bogeymen. Stopping student grants following Welsh students wherever in the UK they study and abolishing the national programme for more able & talented pupils, which involves working with universities across the UK.

I recognise the politics of both positions, and it is Plaid’s prerogative to pursue those policies. My advice – from the position of hard-earned progress in government on both matters – is to consider both strategy and tactics. And to reflect on the balance between producer interest and those of citizens, students and their families.

If the progressive grants system is to be reformed, and only available in Wales, then think carefully to leave some wriggle room. Would it be right that a middle-class student from Monmouthshire might get a grant to study (my subject) History at the University of Wales Trinity St David, but a first-in-a-family student from Merthyr Tydfil does not get a grant, having won a place to study Chemical Engineering at Imperial or Cambridge?

The Diamond reforms tell a good story on part-time and post-graduate numbers. Learn the lessons of designing a policy with a purpose and how to deliver.  I would reconsider the Labour government’s decision to switch post-graduate support to loans-only. Look to innovate in supporting the progression of high-quality graduates at Welsh universities, and to bring home those at top institutions elsewhere so that they progress onto PGR (and beyond) in Wales – particularly when aligned with economic priorities.

Welsh policymaking on student finance is constrained by negotiations with HM Treasury and the Student Loans Company. If the new government wants to move quickly on this, then it needs to think carefully about the ask. Any major switch from grants to loans has huge potential implications for the loan parameters set by HMT.

On the more able and talented programme (Seren), it’s suffered from a huge amount of misinformation and myths. If we are to grow more of our own high-quality students and graduates, then there’s still a long way to go in tackling a culture of lowered expectations and excuses in the compulsory education system.

We can’t continue with fewer pupils going onto A-Levels – particularly boys – and expecting different results. And those who do follow this route need the support and encouragement to reach their potential.

Pre-pandemic, the system had course-corrected, and Wales was top in the UK for the best A-Level results, and Science GCSEs were trending upwards. We need to get that grit back into the system – it’s good for students, good for Welsh institutions, and good for the country.

It’s also worth noting that whilst the 18-year-old participation rate for Wales is lower than elsewhere, the rate is comparable (and higher) if you extend the age to 30 (that rate is well over 50%).  This different dynamic of Welsh students is often overlooked when debating and discussing these issues.

Conclusion

There are specific challenges for the Welsh sector, but many of them are common across the UK. We can expect to see the next Scottish Government making some big policy calls post-election.

The new Welsh Government and sector leaders must identify those issues of shared interest across the nations, seizing the opportunity of new intergovernmental and cross-administration relationships.

We might all then have something to sing about, with confidence, about the future of tertiary education in, and for, Wales.

Want to understand more about Wales and higher education?

Read HEPI and London Economics’ recent report on higher education funding in Wales, as well as a blog on Plan 2 student loans in Wales.

In 2024, to mark 25 years since the devolution of powers to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, HEPI and The Education Group London published the collection of essays ‘Evolution of Devolution‘. It provides a comprehensive analysis of how higher education policies in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have evolved over the past quarter of a century.