Bullseye for Plaid

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This blog was kindly authored by Dewi Knight, Director of PolicyWISE (The Open University). Dewi is the former Welsh Government Specialist Adviser for Education and was the lead adviser for the 2016 to 2018 student finance reforms and the Tertiary Education and Research (Wales) Act (2022).

It wasn’t just in Cardiff Bay that Reform UK didn’t quite meet their Welsh expectations last week.

Their most prominent Welsh supporter, former World darts champion, Gerwyn Price (the Iceman) suffered a big defeat to fellow Welshman Jonny Clayton at the Premier League darts event in Leeds on Thursday.

Plaid Cymru supporting social media accounts took it as a sign that Reform’s momentum was melting away, and the nationalists would be hitting their treble seats in the new multi-member constituencies across the nation.

And so, it proved. Plaid have now reached their own premier league – on the cusp of leading government for the first time in a century of existence. This will be formally confirmed (in all probability on Tuesday) when the Senedd elects first a new Llywydd (Speaker) who will then preside over the election of a new First Minister who can command the confidence of the chamber.

National turnout was up, at 52 per cent, just a shade under the Wales turnout for the UK general election in 2024.

A numbers game

Plaid’s percentage of the total vote (35 per cent), and parliamentary seats (43 out of 96), is broadly similar to the SNP’s position in Holyrood. This will have been at the upper end of their expectations (whilst Welsh Labour significantly underperformed their Scottish counterparts).

In contrast to Scotland’s scattered state of opposition parties, Reform UK won nearly 30 per cent of the vote in Wales and are the clear opposition with a third of the seats.

It means that they will have influential positions as Chairs of top committees, and a key role in deciding which policies are debated and scrutinized. Might we see immigration, culture wars and climate change-scepticism becoming a lens for how we discuss policies and government performance?

However, it’s notable that Reform UK’s manifesto was far more positive about universities’ contribution and role in Welsh public life, compared to their traditional approach in England. It will be interesting to watch whether this positioning evolves further.

Plaid have committed to a “cross-party… review of how universities are funded (and that) more of the value of government investment stays in Wales and more Welsh students are supported to stay in Wales” within their first 100 days.

Learning lessons

In my pre-election blog for HEPI, I offered some advice to Plaid in considering both strategy and tactics on these issues, the constraints of negotiations with HM Treasury and Student Loans Company and thinking about the balance of producer interest and those of citizens, students and the nation as a whole.

There has been a real dynamism to their approach since Friday. Their agenda for government is not one that accepts ‘managed decline’. They have clearly learnt lessons from the Prime Minister and Chancellor’s early missteps in accentuating the challenges far more strongly than the positive possible actions.

They have also set out positive and necessary reforms to how Welsh policymaking and centre of government functions. We also know that the party has been working with the SNP to learn from their period as a minority government in its first term in 2007, as well as their broader experience of Scottish government.

However, that initial Plaid dynamism may become diluted during the first 100 days. That is a major risk if the new government insists on instigating the dozens of reviews, panels, and consultations it has promised right across health, education, the economy and more. It could end up looking like all talk and no action, which has been one of the diseases of devolved governance.

What next?

It seems inevitable that the Plaid minority government will move forward with some form of higher education review. Therefore, it should be a review that helps maintain a sense of momentum, rather than kicking tricky issues into the long grass.

1. Start by looking at New Zealand’s recent experience. A review group that was able to produce a first stage report within 6 months, and then a second phase that took another 6 months.
2. When studying the parliamentary arithmetic, it might not be realistic (or desirable) to spend political time and capital making it a “cross-party” review. Might it not be better to frame, and deliver, this review as a truly national effort? Bring diverse expertise that aligns with the new government’s broader ambitions for the economy, cultural vibrancy, national confidence, as well as research, tertiary education, policy, and funding experience.
3. Plaid’s manifesto talked of “collaborative and productive” relations with the Westminster Government, and the other governments of the UK.  The fact that each of our higher education systems face similar and significant challenges means that this could be a test case for positive cross-administration co-operation. Can the review include a four-nations element, looking at cross-cutting issues, as well as the sharing of best practice?
4. There seemed to be some evolution of Plaid’s thinking during the campaign on the issue of whether student grants should be available to Welsh students who study elsewhere in the UK. We need to see a positive case being made for studying and researching in Wales – no matter where you are from. This could include a re-focusing of student funding towards post-graduate support, bringing Welsh students home, building an attractive offer to others, supporting progression, widening participation and an ‘all-ages’ approach.
5. And finally, the system needs to ensure that individual universities are supported (and challenged) to deliver on their different but complementary strengths, international competitiveness, civic and regional contributions, whilst maintaining and expanding academic excellence.

Stepping up to the oche

At the time of writing, we don’t yet know who’ll be chosen as the next Education Secretary. It would make sense to appoint Cefin Campbell MS, who held the portfolio in opposition. He is a thoughtful operator who will surely relish taking forward his plans into government.

Another figure for higher education wonks to watch is new MS Dr Dafydd Trystan Davies. An academic and registrar for the Coleg Cymraeg Cenedlaethol, he is likely to make a big contribution in shaking up how the Welsh Cabinet Office operates, with a culture shift towards outcomes rather than inputs. He will surely have his eye on higher education reforms.

We will see a greater focus on data driven policy and decisions. This might mean a serious look under the bonnet at the financial health of the higher education sector, student decision-making, research performance, and international competitiveness. All of which might reveal some surprises and challenge some long-held assumptions. But as Rhun ap Iorwerth gets ready to step up to the oche of governmental responsibility, he has a full set of darts ready to throw.