Welsh Week: a time for difficult decisions

This is the fifth and final blog in HEPI’s Welsh Week. It was kindly authored by Marian Wyn Jones, Chair of Council, Bangor University and Chair of Welsh University Chairs.

Read the first blog here, the second blog here, the third here, and the fourth here.

As we prepare for a seismic political shift at the Senedd election, ending a century of Labour dominance in Wales, the challenges and opportunities facing our universities will inevitably feature in the inbox of an incoming government, whatever its shape or colour.

An expanded Senedd, withmore space for debate and scrutiny, is a positive step. Anew proportional representational system, with 16- and 17-year-olds voting for the first time, means that change is inevitable.

Whilst there is a lot of talk about governance, there is less talk with those actually doing the governing. Meanwhile, we have a failed business model underpinned by historic structural underfunding, underlying deficits across all eight universities, made worse by market volatility, a downturn in international students and tightened visa restrictions. Since student number caps were lifted over a decade ago, we are competing in a UK-wide market that we are unable to control. If ever there was a time for difficult decisions, this is it. We therefore welcome the opportunity to share our thinking as Chairs of Universities in Wales.

The call for evidence on The Future of Tertiary Education comes very late in this Senedd term; however, it is nonetheless a welcome step. While substantive decisions are unlikely within the lifetime of this government, the evidence gathered will at least provide a valuable foundation for the next administration to move swiftly.

Let’s also be clear, Wales has by far the most generous student support scheme of any nation, albeit one that is becoming increasingly unaffordable. Worryingly, higher education participation rates for 18-year-old entry stand at 29.2 per cent, still the lowest in the UK. But more students enter later in life than elsewhere, a real success story.

We commend the Welsh Government for actively welcoming overseas students and refugees to Wales, and not capping international student fees. We also welcome the increase in home tuition fees for 2025/26. Our ask of the new government is to mirror England and make the inflationary uplift an ongoing commitment. Unless the fundamentals change, our institutions will continue to remain disadvantaged compared to universities across the border and be forced to manage retreat.

Higher Education is one of our great successes and exports. Universities are anchor institutions in our towns and cities, drive the high-skills pipeline and are key to our economic growth. Welsh universities contribute £10.97bn of economic impact each year – an impressive return of £13 for every pound of public money invested.

Yet Medr’s subject provision review illustrates a higher education sector that is geographically narrow – one that does not consistently deliver for the students of Wales. Unlike Scotland and Northern Ireland, we have a system that incentivises our young people to leave Wales; a sizeable proportion never return. Around 40 per cent of Welsh young people choose to study outside Wales, compared with 9 per cent leaving England and just 5 per cent leaving Scotland. We want to see investment in the Seren Programme redirected to incentivise more of our young people to study in Wales and to strengthen the talent pipeline.

The loss of European Structural Funds and the failure to provide adequate replacement funding have been particularly damaging. Research and innovation are significantly underfunded, with allocations for R & I in Wales pro rata to its population £57 million lower in 2024/25 than those for England, and £86m lower than in Scotland. We support Universities Wales in pushing for greater investment in research and innovation, increased QR funding and greater support for the crucial work our universities do in supporting our communities and helping them thrive. This is imperative for a more prosperous and fairer Wales.

We are calling for funding reform and a system reset. From newly published data by the Institute for Fiscal Studies, it is clear that, whichever party or coalition form the government in May, a slowdown in funding growth appears inevitable. There will be tough choices for the new government. Whilst Medr was established to develop a single tertiary system and to promote collaboration, it is unclear whether the regulator has the powers to direct. But that could change under a new government. Legislation for Competition & Markets Authority derogation could and should allow Welsh Universities to at least discuss provision and cold spots in a rational and planned way.

This a pivotal moment for the higher education system and for Wales. Our universities have always been a driving force for boosting growth and opportunity. For that to continue, we need an urgent appraisal of the scale and breadth of our provision. We can choose to act so that our universities thrive, or we can allow them to slide into managed decline. With a new government at the helm Senedd in May, it is imperative that higher education continues to unlock our economic potential. Only then can our universities drive a strong and successful Wales.

Want to understand more about Wales and higher education?

Read HEPI and London Economics’ recent report on higher education funding in Wales, as well as a blog on Plan 2 student loans in Wales.

In 2024, to mark 25 years since the devolution of powers to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, HEPI and The Education Group London published the collection of essays ‘Evolution of Devolution‘. It provides a comprehensive analysis of how higher education policies in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have evolved over the past quarter of a century.