New HEPI Report ‘Demographic decline and predatory recruitment: The twin threats to English higher education into the 2040s’

A new HEPI report warns that English higher education is heading towards a potentially severe financial crisis driven by two converging pressures: a sharp demographic decline after 2030 and increasingly aggressive student recruitment practices.

In Demographic decline and predatory recruitment: The twin threats to English higher education into the 2040s (HEPI Report 201), Bahram Bekhradnia argues that while universities are already grappling with falling real-terms tuition fee income, the coming drop in the young population could create even greater instability across the sector.

The report reveals that higher-tariff universities have increasingly expanded their intake by recruiting students with lower prior attainment than they would historically have accepted, effectively shrinking the pool of applicants available to other institutions. While this strategy has helped some universities protect their income in the short term, the analysis suggests that once the demographic downturn begins, many non-higher-tariff universities could face devastating losses. Under the report’s most likely scenarios, some institutions stand to lose more than a quarter of their undergraduate income – a level the report describes as unsustainable.

Framed as a warning to policymakers, governors and university leaders alike, the report asks difficult questions about whether the sector can continue operating under current market dynamics. It explores the stark policy choices ahead, including whether some form of student number controls may ultimately be required to prevent institutional failure and protect regional higher education provision. To read the press release and find a download link of the report, click here.