What to expect for results day and Clearing 2026: early clues and insights in UCAS data

Join HEPI for an ‘In Conversation’ webinar ahead of the 2026 admissions round on 11:00-12:00, 11th August 2026, featuring Dr Jo Saxton CBE, Chief Executive of UCAS. In discussion with Nick Hillman OBE, followed by a live Q&A, the session will explore the key issues shaping this year’s admissions cycle and what they mean for universities, applicants and the wider higher education sector. Register now.

This blog was kindly authored by Maggie Smart, UCAS Director of Data and Analysis and Jo Richards, UCAS Senior Insights Lead.

As attention turns to Qualifications Scotland results day next Tuesday and Level 3 results day the following Thursday, the focus understandably is on what happens when applicants receive their grades. Yet early indicators about this year’s admissions cycle have already emerged.

The 30 June Deadline – the point at which about 96% of prospective students who apply through UCAS have typically submitted their applications – provides a valuable early snapshot of the upcoming university cohort and what could potentially happen in Clearing.  

Growing UK 18-year-olds means a growing market

Demand for higher education remains strong this year, with record numbers applying to university and college – highlighting confidence among applicants as we enter the summer results period. Overall, 695,740 students applied by the June deadline this year, compared to 665,070 in 2025. This is up +4.6%. 

Looking specifically at UK 18-year-olds, applicant numbers have increased in line with the growth in the population cohort, rising from 328,390 in 2025 to 344,760 in 2026. In turn, the application rate has remained strong and steady, up slightly from 41.2% in 2025 to 41.4% in 2026.

In previous cycles, record numbers of UK 18-year-old applicants have led to record acceptances, and we anticipate more school leavers will be celebrating getting their first (UCAS firm) choice once again this year.

Mature applicants may drive Clearing activity

One applicant group who could have an impact on Clearing this summer is mature learners (aged 21+). Mature applicants are typically more likely than school leavers to apply later in the admissions cycle, including directly to Clearing. By the 30 June deadline this year, 33% of UK mature applicants applied between the January Equal Consideration date (ECD) and 30 June, compared with just 2% of UK 18-year-old applicants.

Although mature applicant demand remains below where it was a decade ago, it has increased by +1% (up from 86,310 to 87,180) compared to June last year, marking the first year-on-year rise in mature applicant numbers at this point in the cycle since 2022.

If the trend of later mature applicants continues, we could certainly see more trying to find an available place directly in Clearing this year.

Offer-making behaviour: balancing demand and capacity

Looking at how providers are responding to applicant demand through their offer-making behaviour also gives a good indication of what we might expect to see on results day. 

Overall, universities and colleges have made 2.07m offers to applicants who applied by the January ECD, a +3.2% increase since 2025. While institutions have made more offers this year, this is in response to higher demand and a large proportion of applications have been to higher tariff providers. This has contributed to a small decrease in the overall offer rate, which now stands at 72.6%, down slightly from 72.9% in 2025.

This marginally lower offer rate and the increased number of applicants could potentially lead to more activity in Clearing than last year, among mature and international applicants who have seen slightly lower offer rates across the sector. However, with around 27,000 courses in Clearing, there are plenty of options available for those deciding on their next steps. UCAS research also shows the vast majority of offer holders remain committed to going to university this autumn.

Applicants continue to choose STEM while Social Sciences increases

We are also seeing continued growing demand for particular subject areas, notably across STEM subjects, suggesting applicants are continuing to make informed choices about their future study and employment prospects.

Engineering and Technology has seen the biggest growth in applications by the 30 June deadline, with an increase of +38,260 applications compared to the same point last year (+16.3%). In addition, applications to Mathematical Sciences have also risen, increasing by +11% from 68,150 in 2025 to 75,650 in 2026. However, there has also been a 9.8% increase in applications to Social Sciences, from 317,690 last year to 348,660 this year, while Law has seen an 8.7% uplift, from 176,730 in 2025 to 192,070 this year.

As we look ahead to Clearing, these trends may continue to shape applicant decision making. Every year, we see a wide range of courses available in Clearing across all types of universities and colleges – but the most selective courses at the most selective institutions tend to fill fairly quickly. While we anticipate strong demand for certain subject areas such as STEM in Clearing, students will continue to have a wide range of opportunities available to them – from Maths to Marketing and Medieval Studies.

Cost of living top of the mind for applicants

Financial considerations are increasingly shaping the way students are making decisions about what and where to study, and UCAS research shows cost of living support on offer by universities and colleges is now the third most important consideration for young people exploring their options.

As a result, more applicants are weighing up where to study, where to live and how they’ll cover daily expenses. This may mean more use Decline My Place to apply elsewhere during Clearing – last year, about a third of those placed in Clearing (34%) used DMP. This group of Clearing users typically change their mind to opt for a different choice – a choice that is often closer to home or enables them to live at home.

Among students who were placed through Clearing last year, nearly three quarters (73%) said understanding cost of living at the university or college was important, closely followed by the financial support available (71%) and the cost of travelling between university and home (69%).    

Having a realistic understanding of their likely expenses while studying is crucial. Yet new UCAS research this year found fewer than one in three (29%) applicants feel informed about how much money they will need to support themselves at university or college. To help, UCAS has launched a new budget calculator, enabling applicants to estimate living costs across more than 100 UK locations, create a personalised budget, and plan their finances as they consider their options. Students can also use UCAS’ scholarships, bursaries and grants tool to explore the financial support offered by universities and colleges.

With Confirmation and Clearing now on the horizon, we’re keeping an eye on how the 30 June application trends turn into acceptances.