A pre‑populist moment for higher education? Reading beyond the headlines of the British Social Attitudes Survey

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This blog has been produced from remarks made by Professor Diana Beech, Director of the Finsbury Institute at City St George’s, University of London, at the launch event of the 2025 higher education survey by the National Centre for Social Research on 4 June 2026 in central London.

The latest findings from the British Social Attitudes Survey have quickly captured attention across the higher education sector. Headlines have focused on declining public confidence in universities. But if we move beyond the immediate story, the data point to a deeper conundrum for the sector, suggesting that the political settlement that has underpinned the expansion of higher education in England is beginning to fray.

Rather than signalling a collapse in support for higher education altogether, the survey reveals a more complex and, ultimately, more precarious picture for England’s universities. What emerges is a public that still believes in the value of higher education in principle, but is increasingly sceptical about the system as it currently operates. That distinction is critical and it should give the sector pause for thought, especially around the following five findings.

Support for higher education has become conditional

First, it is important to be clear where public support for higher education begins and where it ends. Contrary to some interpretations, the British public has not turned decisively against universities. Only a minority (18 per cent) supports reducing opportunities to attend university. This at least suggests that access to higher education still commands broad public support.

However, this sits alongside a striking counterpoint: 42 per cent of people believe there are too many graduates. So, the public appears to be holding two ideas at once – valuing higher education as an opportunity, while doubting the current scale and outcomes of the system.

This is a dangerous space for the sector to occupy. It resembles what might be termed a ‘pre-populist moment’: a situation where the core principle of higher education remains intact but dissatisfaction with its delivery is growing. Historically, this is the kind of environment in which more radical reforms could gain traction if this or a future government should choose to enact them.

Cross-party scepticism is emerging

Second, we should resist the temptation to interpret these attitudes through a simple left-versus–right political lens. While scepticism towards higher education has often been associated with the political right, the survey data suggest that criticism of universities is becoming more evenly distributed across the political spectrum.

Yes, Conservative and Reform voters tend to express more negative views about higher education, but significant proportions of Labour and Liberal Democrat supporters also believe there are too many graduates. In other words, dissatisfaction with higher education is no longer politically contained.

This suggests there is a growing cross-party appetite for some kind of reform of the system. For the sector, this is arguably more challenging than facing opposition from a single political flank alone because when critique becomes mainstream, it is far more difficult to counter – and also far more likely to translate into policy.

It also reflects a broader shift in the political landscape for universities. As we showed in our recent Preparing for Populism report (Debate Paper 44), higher education no longer enjoys unqualified support from the voters of any major party. As a result, universities cannot assume that policymakers will defend them if pressures mount, and the erosion of political allies and advocates is happening faster than many in the sector may realise.

Immigration: the sector’s strategic blind spot

A third, and perhaps the most acute, pressure point for universities lies in public attitudes to international students. Here, the findings are stark: 67 per cent of respondents support limits on international student numbers, with majorities across all main political groups.

This is deeply significant since, over the past decade, universities have become structurally dependent on international fee income to cross-subsidise teaching and research and even remain solvent. Yet public consent for this model is weakening.

Put simply, the financial sustainability of the sector now rests on a policy position that lacks broad public support. That is a precarious foundation and it also raises important questions about the long-term viability of policies such as the Graduate Route, which has already been subject to successive tightening.

As the next General Election approaches, this issue is likely to become a political battleground. And if public opinion continues to harden, universities may find that they are living on borrowed time when it comes to continued unrestricted international student inflows.

The economic case for higher education is ender strain

Fourth, the survey points to a growing challenge to the economic narrative that has long justified the expansion of the sector. For decades, the case was clear: a university degree was an investment that would yield higher earnings and better life chances.

Yet, that narrative is now weakening. Only 36 per cent of respondents believe graduates are significantly better off financially, while 34 per cent think university is not worth the time and money. These are not marginal shifts, but they cut right to the heart of the sector’s legitimacy.

And this is not simply about fee levels or student debt either. The public is clearly judging the value of higher education through labour market outcomes and whether graduates are obtaining the jobs and salaries they were led to expect.

So, if the link between a degree and these improved life chances becomes less visible, then the justification for the current size and shape of the system becomes harder to sustain.

A growing generational fault line

Finally, the data reveal an emerging generational divide that carries significant political risk. Those who benefited from free higher education are, perhaps ironically, more likely to support student contributions than those who have paid high tuition fees.

This finding speaks to a deeper question of fairness in society. Younger generations are being asked to invest more and more in higher education while facing more uncertain returns. And they are doing so in a world shaped by wider pressures – from rising house prices to a worsening labour market and the growing threat of technological disruption.

The result is a growing sense that the system is unbalanced: that those who designed and defend it did not face the same constraints. And in an era of rising populism, this could add further fuel to the fire.

A window of opportunity – or a warning sign?

Taken together, these findings should not be dismissed as a temporary dip in public confidence. They point to a more fundamental shift in public support for higher education, which is becoming more conditional on the sector addressing its broken promises.

The survey raises some clear warning signs:

• rising scepticism about value;
• cross-party appetite for reform;
• strong support for limiting international students; and
• growing generational tensions.

While this is not yet a crisis, it is also not a stable platform for growth. Rather, it represents a window of opportunity for the sector, as there is still time for universities, and indeed for government, to reshape the system in ways that respond to public concerns.

But that window may not remain open for long. And if public scepticism hardens, then scope for constructive reform could narrow. The question for higher education, then, is not whether change is coming, but whether it will help shape that change before a future government shapes it for us?