- This HEPI blog was kindly authored by Ben Jordan, Director of Strategy at UCAS.
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In the same way that opinion polling predicted how the public was likely to vote at this month’s UK general election, UCAS’s June 30 Deadline data offers a strong steer on what demand for higher education may look like come the start of term.
Hundreds of thousands of students on SQA and JCQ Level 3 results days will be getting their results and waiting to see if they’ve secured their first choice. It comes as both students and universities navigate a complex environment driven by demographic changes, financial pressures and the ongoing evolution of the higher education (HE) sector.
18-year-old numbers second highest on record
This year, we’re seeing a shift in university applications and offer-making trends, with the second highest on record when it comes to UK 18-year-olds applying: 321,410 this year, up from 319,570 last year (+0.6%). Overall though, the application rate has fallen slightly, with 41.9% of UK 18-year-olds applying to university or college, down almost 0.3 percentage points (pp) since last year. This is, however, against a backdrop of heightened demand during the pandemic. Since 2019, the application rate has grown 3.0pp – but growth since then is not keeping pace with the growth in the population.
As we all know, this cycle is taking place in a challenging economic environment. Foremost in young people’s minds – quite understandably – is what financial support is available at university, driven by heightened cost of living pressures.
But far from putting students off going to university or college, they are instead evaluating the value of going to university at an earlier stage. UCAS’s student sentiment survey found almost one in five said they were now more likely to go to university and for 50% of applicants cost of living has made no difference. One in three UK 18-year-olds live at home during their studies and this figure has remained broadly consistent over recent years.
Instead, what we are seeing is greater appetite for information – whether that is about the financial support available, or graduate employment rates in their choices of which course or institution to apply to. From managing money, to student finance, bursaries, grants and student discounts, UCAS has a wealth of resources to help students.
More students hold university offers
There are more students going into Confirmation and Clearing with an offer in their hands compared to last year, with 91% of UK 18-year-olds holding an offer compared to 89% in 2023 and 92% in 2019. Offer rates have risen across all three tariff groups but the biggest increase is among the higher tariff group, from 56.5% in 2023 to 60.2% in 2024. Offer rates at medium tariff universities have increased from 70.7% last year to 73.7% this year, and from 73.4% to 76.8% at lower tariffs.
Latest UCAS survey research* has shown 87% of applicants surveyed had accepted an offer from their preferred university and 70% were confident they would meet or exceed their predicted grades, with similar confidence levels to previous years as sentiment stabilises post-pandemic.
Widening participation progress slows
While significant progress has been made in access and participation over the past 15 years – with disadvantaged students now 76% more likely to enter HE compared to 2009 – the rate of progress has slowed in recent years.
June 30 data shows there has been slight movement in the application rate for the most and least advantaged. The application rate for UK 18-year-olds from the most disadvantaged backgrounds (POLAR4 Quintile 1) has slightly declined to 27.0% (-0.1 pp on 2023) whereas the application rate for the most advantaged (POALR4 quintile 5) has marginally increased (+0.1 pp) to 57.6%. In England, the TUNDRA application rate gap has widened from 2.35 to 2.39; meanwhile in Wales, the WIMD2019 gap widened from 2.38 to 2.40 and in Northern Ireland the NIMDM2017 gap widened from 1.93 to 2.00. However, in Scotland, the SIMD2020 application rate gap has narrowed from 2.55 to 2.52.
UCAS recognises it has a role in the sector-wide effort to ensure that as many doors as possible are kept open to students from disadvantaged backgrounds so that they can benefit from the life-changing opportunities HE provides.
Our recent announcement about waiving the application fee for recipients of free school meals – which will benefit over 30,000 students – and about displaying historic entry grades and offer rates for each course, along with changes to the personal statement announced today, are all intended to support these students make the best choice for them.
While these initiatives are a step towards making the journey into UK HE more equitable, this isn’t a silver bullet and there are more hurdles for the sector to overcome to create a level playing field for all students. As UCAS shapes its future strategy, we are keen to hear what more you think UCAS can do in this space.
London leads the way in participation
Perhaps unsurprisingly, London is the largest region in England with 96,760 main scheme applicants, only 110 fewer than the record high seen in 2022 and the only region to see an increase in overall applicant numbers, up 0.3% on last year. It also has the highest application rate for UK 18-year-olds at 59.2%, up 1 pp on 2023.
At the opposite end of the scale, the North East (15,680, -4.0%) and South West (36,680, -3.5%) have seen declines in overall applicants (all ages) for a third year in row. The East Midlands has seen the largest fall in applicants compared to 2023, down 1,710 (32,980, -4.9%). For English 18-year-olds, the North East has the lowest application rate of 33.4%, followed by the South West at 35.2%, both 1.1pp lower than last year.
Drilling deeper into the regional data, the difference is even more striking. For instance, in Wimbledon, 70% of 18-year-olds progress to higher education compared to 13% in Barrow and Furness.
These figures continue to show the different rates of participation across the country and that more needs to be done to tackle these stark disparities. The reasons for this are deeply complex and is an area which UCAS research is exploring further. I am incredibly passionate about the life-changing power of a university education as a driver of social mobility and it’s important that less advantaged students aren’t missing out on this significant opportunity.
UCAS is committed to playing its part to address geographical cold spots, and we recently launched our new Outreach Connection Service in a bid to help promote university outreach and engagement activities across the UK based on personal characteristics and postcode areas.
Changes in the international student market
For the past couple of years, the noise around international student numbers has grown louder but this year it has dominated early commentary, particularly in light of the Migration Advisory Committee review. This cycle, international applicant numbers are broadly in line with recent years, down 2,590 (-1.9%) on 2023 but up 3,470 (+2.6%) from 2019.
The top five international markets for applicants remain the same as last year, with China leading the way (30,860, +0.5%) followed by India (12,750, -1.4%), USA (6,960, +0.8%), Hong Kong (5,410, -10.6%) and Ireland (5,290, -1.8%).
The number of international applicants this year is being driven by a pronounced fall in Nigerian applicants, down from 5,020 last year to 2,570 this year (-48.8%) – in part because of the uncertain Nigerian economy, with the devaluation of its currency against the British pound, and the change in bringing dependents to the UK. However, other markets are seeing a stronger desire to study in the UK – such as Turkey with 2,970 applicants, 660 more than 2023 (+28.7%). Applicant numbers from Turkey have seen year-on-year growth since 2019, driven by push factors linked to domestic capacity and pull factors including the perceived quality of a UK undergraduate degree.
International students make up the rich tapestry of the UK, contributing significant cultural, social and economic benefits. It is extremely encouraging to see international students continue to apply to UK universities in large numbers, demonstrating how highly valued UK HE remains but continual growth is not guaranteed. Results day is an exciting time for all students and we want this to be reflected in their experience of transitioning to university. As always, UCAS’s team of expert advisors are readily available on the phones, on ucas.com and on our social media channels over the course of Confirmation and Clearing to offer all applicants support and guidance with their next steps.
*UCAS surveyed UK 17/18-year-olds holding at least one offer in May 2024.
View the June 30 Deadline data here.