By Famke Veenstra-Ashmore, who completed an internship with HEPI in summer 2024.
UCAS data show that in 2024, the number of 18-year-olds from Wales applying to university was the lowest in the UK. While 41.9% of 18-year-olds in England had applied for university by the end of June deadline, only 33.8% of their Welsh counterparts followed suit.
The percentage of 18-year-olds who applied to university from Wales reached a record high of 38.1% in 2022. The demand for graduates in Wales is not decreasing – the UK Department for Education projects that the nation will need 402,825 graduates to fill roles by 2035. So why has there been such a sudden drop in Welsh 18-year-olds engaging with higher education?
Potential issues
Cost of living crisis
University is generally becoming a less financially viable option for young people, especially those from low-income households and backgrounds. Welsh students living in the most deprived quintile – based on the Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation (WIMD 2019) – are less likely to apply and be accepted into university. In 2021, a ten-year peak of 1,340 18-year-olds (19%) were accepted from the most deprived backgrounds. In 2024, however, 2024 saw only 1,200 accepted (16%), which reflects a 140 place or 3 percentage point decrease. This is compared to an average of 27% application rate of that age group.
A 2024 HEPI / TechnologyOne report found that students studying outside London need £18,600 to have an acceptable standard of living. While Wales has the most generous maintenance packages in the UK, the support offered does not seem to have improved the application rate for low-income students. The provision available to Welsh students falls £6,482 short. Many Welsh families cannot make up this figure: in 2022/23, 19% of working-age people were materially deprived in Wales and this has increased from 14% in 2021/22.
This has directly impacted students – a 2023 NUS Wales survey found that 8% of Welsh students have experienced homelessness, while 32% failed to pay rent at some point in the 2022/23 academic year. In order to avoid this problem, some Welsh students are choosing to remain in Wales for university so they can keep living at home and commute to university. In the 2022/23 academic year, 60% of those who applied to Welsh universities came from Wales.
Regional inequalities
While the application disparity affects the entire nation, it is not evenly spread across each region. Like England, Wales suffers from considerable regional inequalities affecting entry into higher education. Previous research from UCAS in 2022 showed that South Wales Central, which includes Cardiff and the Vale of Glamorgan, had the highest entry rate to university at 37.9% out of all the Welsh regions, whereas South Wales East, which includes Newport and Caerphilly, had the lowest at 29.7%.
These disparities may relate to the historic industries which have dominated in each constituency. Many areas of South Wales East built communities and careers around mines, which no longer provide the same opportunities they once did. Meanwhile, the more commercial basis and economic prosperity of South Wales Central has undoubtedly influenced the quality of schools in the area and encouraged movement from school to university.
Notably, of the 15 higher education providers in Wales, none have their main base located in South Wales East. As the UCAS research notes, this could suggest there is a supply issue. Given that the majority of students who stay in Wales prefer to study locally, the absence of a provider in South Wales East could have a knock-on effect and keep those reluctant to move out of higher education. Students from South Wales East are, however, more likely to take interest in apprenticeships, with a 2 percentage point difference to the rest of the Welsh regions.
Funding challenges for Welsh Universities
Welsh universities – which are popular with Welsh students in particular – face unique financial challenges. Borrowing by the Welsh university sector is much higher than the rest of the UK, standing at 49% of income compared to 34% of income for the entire UK in 2023. In addition, Wales also received £44 million less Quality Research Funding (QR) than England and £68 million less than Scotland for the 2023/24 academic year.
Furthermore, since the Brexit referendum, Welsh universities have been struggling financially. The Welsh higher education sector benefited greatly from European Structural Funds which offered universities the finances to build new academic centres, including Swansea University’s Innovation Hub (£120 million) and Cardiff University’s Translational Research Hub (£13.1 million). With less money, less can be spent on individual students. Given the rate of material deprivation in Wales, this lack of investment might put off applicants who need to prioritise their finances and therefore plan to live locally following secondary education.
How can we encourage more Welsh students to apply to university?
Welsh students need the resources and encouragement necessary to support their applications to universities. Non-selective state schools often lack the funding to spend time on preparing competitive UCAS applications or promoting higher education as a post-secondary education option. Grammar schools, which in some areas of England provide some disadvantaged students with these opportunities, do not exist in Wales.
Certain schools which used to be grammar schools in Wales have higher application rates and often higher exam results. A fair few of these legacy comprehensives are in South Wales Central. Support is therefore highly dependent on which region any individual attends school – areas with schools with high rates of progression (like South Wales Central) have the highest rates of progression to higher education.
This postcode lottery requires fundamental structural change which will not be rapidly solved. However, the Welsh Government and the Department for Education have a responsibility to help communities which suffer from deprivation or lower access to higher education. Institutions and policy-makers should ensure that regional disparities within national disparities are considered to address the overall problem.
Local government should fund academic networks and schemes aimed at getting Welsh students in particular into universities across the UK. Schemes such as the Seren Academy/Network already exist for high-achieving individuals, but more should be done to promote the benefits of higher education to all pupils, especially those who come from disadvantaged backgrounds or areas where there is little academic and socioeconomic progression.
One model which schools, charities and institutions could follow is the one offered by the English charity IntoUniversity, which operates local learning centres where young people are introduced to the idea of university and encouraged to achieve their academic or career goals. They also work with access and outreach teams at English universities to provide school visits – this direct contact with university life can often be the first stepping stone in prompting an application.
Where possible, schools also need to be empowered to start discussions around university as early in students’ secondary education as possible. Currently, schools in certain areas just do not have the resources to get more students into university: there are no school sixth forms in Blaenau Gwent and Merthyr Tydfil (South Wales East) and many schools across the country are struggling to cope with the increasing rates of absenteeism which means less focus is put on progression. These problems take priority and might explain why fewer Welsh students in particular are applying to university.
Engaging with students directly may prove especially effective for helping students who could be the first in their family to attend university and therefore are not equipped with the advice and experience to decide what the best next steps are for them. Welsh students also need success stories from other Welsh students – preferably from their particular area – in order to have something to aspire towards. The positive impact of mentorship should not be underestimated: schools should stay in touch with any recent leavers to university and encourage them to foster connections with younger students.
An interesting article but as is often the case, all of the examples given are from South Wales. What about the rest of the country? I’m sure there are equally valid examples from other regions that would make the article balanced and representative of all of Wales.